The AI buildout, tracked campus by campus
AI infrastructure is the largest capital spending cycle in the market, and most of that money depends on data centers getting power, permits and financing on schedule. Most trackers count announced megawatts. Bellwether checks each major campus against the permits, utility filings and financing documents behind it, and links what it finds to the bonds, loans and stocks exposed to it.
bell·weth·er: the lead sheep of the flock; in markets, the leading indicator.
What gets built, and who is exposed
Every subscription also includes Sheephill research notes: deep dives on campuses, power markets, credit and equity coverage.
DC Tracker
Execution risk at every major AI data center campus, tracked through the project LLCs that actually file the permits.
- Execution-risk scores for 57 campuses, updated as filings land
- Financial-close checklists: zoning, interconnection, gas lateral, air, water, Army Corps
- Energization timelines cross-referenced to ISO and utility queues
- Funder, lender and bondholder exposure, ranked by risk-weighted dollars
- Signals and a catalyst calendar of agency and court decision dates
Credit & pricing
What those physical constraints mean for the companies, the debt and the price of capacity.
- Company views: delivered vs. planned GW, obligations vs. cash flow
- Trade screen: catalysts mapped to traded bonds and loans, with price-implied odds
- Capacity pricing: what energized space and GPU capacity cost under disclosed contracts
- Credit: project debt by the delivery risk of the unit behind it
- Value rotation: which layer of the AI stack the market has paid, and where it binds next
Two months of public warning before a force-majeure notice.
On September 24, 2026 Oracle sent a force-majeure notice on its Project Jupiter campus, and its shares fell about 3% that day. Every step leading up to it was in the public record.
The DC Tracker's execution-risk score crossed its High band 66 days, and its Critical band 32 days, before the notice. The leading signals came from dockets and courts, not financial disclosures.
Single-case, in-sample illustration.
Private beta
One annual subscription includes the full DC Tracker and every Sheephill research note.
- DC Tracker: campus-level permitting, power and financing risk
- Credit & pricing: trade screen, capacity pricing and value rotation
- Sheephill Research: every note, interactive report and PDF
- Free during the private beta; access by invitation